20th anniversary of Babri mosque demolition: The damage has not been undone as yet

LUCKNOW: Twenty years after demolition of Babri mosque, the Ayodhya debate is still on. The frenzy mob which razed the masjid to ground on December 6, 1992, perhaps had little or no inkling that the fanatic act would change the Indian politics for all times to come. Though the Ram Temple issue seems to have lost its electoral appeal, the damage has not been undone as yet and the efforts to polarise votes on religious lines continues, at least in UP, where eight major communal clashes have taken place after Samajwadi Party (SP) came to power in March this year and the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) is trying to cobble up the team of Hindutava hardliners who played a crucial role in the Temple movement, leading to the demolition of the masjid.

The communal rift created by the 1990 Ram temple movement which resulted in demolition of the mosque saw the BJP emerging as a national force, particularly in the north and west India, thereby changing the Indian polity forever. Till then the politics mainly revolved around the Congress and anti-Congressism, but post 1992, it became 'triangular' with the addition of the anti-Congress-BJP Third front. The demographic vote equations also changed with the Muslims, who also held inaction of the then Congress government headed by PV Narasimha Rao at the Centre equally responsible for the demolition of the mosque, shifting loyalty to regional parties which they felt could counter the saffron threat. It led to the rise of regional satraps like Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Prasad Yadav among others.

The upheaval also pushed India into an era of instability which saw four prime ministers heading various coalition governments and two mid-term lok sabha polls between 1990-99. As no single party could win majority since then, the regional parties have been playing crucial role in formation of the governments. The coalition politics still continues but now its more mature and stable than 90s. But in UP, the instability continued from 1989 to 2007, during which period, the state saw ten governments of different permutations and combinations, three mid term assembly elections, four chief ministers, defections in parties and two stints of president rule. Interestingly, while the BJP was able to sustain in other states after Babri mosque demolition, in UP its tally declined steadily with every election.

Many political analysts believe that the 'Mandir' issue should be seen along with the 'Mandal'. After revolting against Rajiv Gandhi over Bofors scam, VP Singh formed Janta Dal in 1989 by bringing all the anti-Congress forces together. In the subsequent elections, the Congress was defeated but Janta Dal could not get the majority either. Singh became prime minister with support of the Left and the BJP. On August 7, 1990, Singh implemented the Mandal commission report providing 27% reservation for other backward classes (OBCs) to mobilise backward vote bank. On September 25, BJP's LK Advani began his rath yatra from Somnath in Gujrat demanding construction of Ram Temple at the disputed site housing Babri masjid in Ayodhya, which the saffron forces claimed was the birth place of Lord Ram.

The yatra, which was to end at Ayodhya, left behind a trail of communal clashes. On Singh's direction, the then Bihar chief minister Lalu Yadav's ordered police to intercept yatra at Samastipur and arrest Advani on October 23. On October 30, the then UP chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav ordered firing on people, who had assembled in Ayodhya on BJP's call, when they tried to storm into the mosque. The firing in Ayodhya and ensuing communal clashes in all over the country left over 500 dead. The immediate impact was that the mandir (communal) politics overshadowed the mandal (caste) politics. As a result, the BJP's number in Lok Sabha rose to 120 in 1991 from 85 in 1989. The BJP also won state assembly elections in five states in 1991 -- UP, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh.

The communal plank polarised votes across all castes. After assuming power in UP under Kalyan Singh, saffron forces gave call to start 'symbolic' construction of Temple on December 6, 1992, which led to demolition of the mosque. Kalyan was jailed for a day for 'contempt of court'. He had assured the Supreme Court that the government will protect mosque but failed to discharge the constitutional duty. The turn of events led to more communal riots across the country but by razing the mosque down, the saffron brigade killed the goose that laid the golden egg. At least, it was true for UP where caste politics took over communalism after tempers cooled down following fall of the 15th century mosque, allegedly built by a Mughal ruler over ruins of a temple at Lord Ram's birth place after destroying it.

"Temple politics created 'upper caste dominated middle class' vote bank for the BJP. A few dominant OBCs also supported it. The party sustained in the states where it is in direct fight with the Congress. But in UP, dalits by Mayawati and OBCs by Mulayam realised that supporting temple politics means accepting the brahminical order responsible for their repression since ages", said political analysts. In due course, said political observer JP Singh, the BJP also realised that the factor which increased its tally from 2 in 1984 to 182 in 1999 is also the major hurdle in exceeding further. The party had to put the temple issue on the back seat to form a coalition with other parties to assume power at the Centre. This, however, left supporters disappointed, leading to drop in its tally in subsequent elections.

In UP, the disillusionment of upper casts from BJP was so strong that a section brahmins voted for BSP in 2007 assembly elections and for SP in 2012. But, says political analyst Sudhir Panwar, the divisive politics based on cast and faith has divided farmers, artisans and industrial workers, as a result the issues related to agriculture and labour have become secondary in the priority list of the political parties. "One should also not forget that maximum cases of terror attacks in India have happened after demolition of Babri mosque, which communalized the social-political environment of country further. We need to defeat hardliners, in all the communities, and their political masters, for the sake of the nation and people", he added.

However, political parties seems to be in no mood to leave caste and communal politics. In fact, the BJP leaders said that today party needs the kind of tailwind that was necessary for the party in 1984 when it was reduced to just two seats in Parliament. The Vishwa Hindu Parishad had then came to the rescue. It formed a committee to 'liberate' the 'birthplace' of Lord Ram in Ayodhya and build a temple. Advani was given leadership of the campaign. The BJP gained from the issue till 1999 but decline started thereafter. The decline was mainly because of loss in UP where BJP's seatshare dropped to 10 in 2009 from 51 in 1991.

Today, the BJP has reached a saturation point in most of the states except UP where its prospects may improve. But the situation in UP has gone from bad to worse for the BJP to the extent that it lost the Ayodha seat for the first time since 1989 in the assembly elections held earlier this year. The 'embarrassment' has made saffron forces to sit up and revive the Hindutva agenda, as in 1984, by bringing back the Hindutva mascots like Uma Bharti and Kalyan Singh. Simultaneously, the work at the workshop set up in Ayodhya during temple movement to carve pillars for the 'grand Ram Temple' has started, indicating that something is cooking in the saffron camp. The riots under the SP rule have come as a booster.

While the BJP is desperate for a revival in UP, the Congress and SP are also looking forward to cash in on the 'fear psychosis' among Muslims after demolition of the Babri Masjid. The two parties are trying to appease the minority committee by announcing a number of sops. Mulayam has prime ministerial ambitions and that can be fulfilled only if his party is able to win maximum seats in UP. And, it will be possible only if Muslims stick to him, so Mulayam is doing all he can to keep them in good humour. Besides welfare schemes for the Muslims, he has promised to release all Muslims 'falsely' implicated in terror acts. He is even taking support of hardliner Muslims and has inducted some of them in the party.

The Bahujan Samaj Party is also trying to win the confidence of the Muslims by publicising that the community was safe during the Mayawati rule, during which period no riots took place. Mayawati, too, has prime ministerial ambitions. Both SP and BSP are banking on the fact that the Ram Temple movement and the Babri Masjid demolition pushed India into an era of instability. As no single party could win majority after the incident, the regional parties have been playing a crucial role in the formation of central governments. Also, ever since the Muslims have been voting tactically for the party which can stop the BJP. Under these circumstances, Mayawati and Mulayam know that Muslim votes would be crucial for them to become king or kingmakers in 2014.

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Longer tamoxifen use cuts breast cancer deaths

Breast cancer patients taking the drug tamoxifen can cut their chances of having the disease come back or kill them if they stay on the pills for 10 years instead of five years as doctors recommend now, a major study finds.

The results could change treatment, especially for younger women. The findings are a surprise because earlier research suggested that taking the hormone-blocking drug for longer than five years didn't help and might even be harmful.

In the new study, researchers found that women who took tamoxifen for 10 years lowered their risk of a recurrence by 25 percent and of dying of breast cancer by 29 percent compared to those who took the pills for just five years.

In absolute terms, continuing on tamoxifen kept three additional women out of every 100 from dying of breast cancer within five to 14 years from when their disease was diagnosed. When added to the benefit from the first five years of use, a decade of tamoxifen can cut breast cancer mortality in half during the second decade after diagnosis, researchers estimate.

Some women balk at taking a preventive drug for so long, but for those at high risk of a recurrence, "this will be a convincer that they should continue," said Dr. Peter Ravdin, director of the breast cancer program at the UT Health Science Center in San Antonio.

He reviewed results of the study, which was being presented Wednesday at a breast cancer conference in San Antonio and published by the British medical journal Lancet.

About 50,000 of the roughly 230,000 new cases of breast cancer in the United States each year occur in women before menopause. Most breast cancers are fueled by estrogen, and hormone blockers are known to cut the risk of recurrence in such cases.

Tamoxifen long was the top choice, but newer drugs called aromatase inhibitors — sold as Arimidex, Femara, Aromasin and in generic form — do the job with less risk of causing uterine cancer and other problems.

But the newer drugs don't work well before menopause. Even some women past menopause choose tamoxifen over the newer drugs, which cost more and have different side effects such as joint pain, bone loss and sexual problems.

The new study aimed to see whether over a very long time, longer treatment with tamoxifen could help.

Dr. Christina Davies of the University of Oxford in England and other researchers assigned 6,846 women who already had taken tamoxifen for five years to either stay on it or take dummy pills for another five years.

Researchers saw little difference in the groups five to nine years after diagnosis. But beyond that time, 15 percent of women who had stopped taking tamoxifen after five years had died of breast cancer versus 12 percent of those who took it for 10 years. Cancer had returned in 25 percent of women on the shorter treatment versus 21 percent of those treated longer.

Tamoxifen had some troubling side effects: Longer use nearly doubled the risk of endometrial cancer. But it rarely proved fatal, and there was no increased risk among premenopausal women in the study — the very group tamoxifen helps most.

"Overall the benefits of extended tamoxifen seemed to outweigh the risks substantially," Dr. Trevor Powles of the Cancer Centre London wrote in an editorial published with the study.

The study was sponsored by cancer research organizations in Britain and Europe, the United States Army, and AstraZeneca PLC, which makes Nolvadex, a brand of tamoxifen, which also is sold as a generic for 10 to 50 cents a day. Brand-name versions of the newer hormone blockers, aromatase inhibitors, are $300 or more per month, but generics are available for much less.

The results pose a quandary for breast cancer patients past menopause and those who become menopausal because of their treatment — the vast majority of cases. Previous studies found that starting on one of the newer hormone blockers led to fewer relapses than initial treatment with tamoxifen did.

Another study found that switching to one of the new drugs after five years of tamoxifen cut the risk of breast cancer recurrence nearly in half — more than what was seen in the new study of 10 years of tamoxifen.

"For postmenopausal women, the data still remain much stronger at this point for a switch to an aromatase inhibitor," said that study's leader, Dr. Paul Goss of Massachusetts General Hospital. He has been a paid speaker for a company that makes one of those drugs.

Women in his study have not been followed long enough to see whether switching cuts deaths from breast cancer, as 10 years of tamoxifen did. Results are expected in about a year.

The cancer conference is sponsored by the American Association for Cancer Research, Baylor College of Medicine and the UT Health Science Center.

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Marilynn Marchione can be followed at http://twitter.com/MMarchioneAP

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John McAfee Seeks Asylum, Thanks God for 'Sanity'

Eccentric software tycoon John McAfee, wanted for questioning in the shooting death of his neighbor, has made his escape from Belize to Guatemala, where he told ABC News he will be seeking asylum.

"Thank God I am in a place where there is some sanity," McAfee said. "I chose Guatemala carefully."

McAfee, 67, has been on the run from police in the Central American country of Belize since the Nov. 10 murder of his neighbor, fellow American expatriate Greg Faull. Investigators said that McAfee was not a suspect in the death of the former developer, who was found shot in the head in his house on the resort island of San Pedro, but that they wanted to question him.

McAfee has been hiding from police ever since – a tactic his new lawyer, Telesforo Guerra, says was necessary.

"You don't have to believe what the police say," Guerra told ABC News. "Even though they say he is not a suspect they were trying to capture him." Guerra is Guatemala's former Attorney General, and, says McAfee, the uncle of McAfee's 20-year-old girlfriend, Samantha.

McAfee says the government raided his beachfront home and threatened Samantha's family.

"Fifteen armed soldiers come in and personally kidnap my housekeeper, threaten Sam's father with torture and haul away half a million dollars of my s___," claimed McAfee. "If they're not after me, then why all these raids? There've been eight raids!"

Johan Ordonez/AFP/Getty Images

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McAfee will hold a press conference at 3 p.m. Eastern Time in Guatemala City to announce his asylum bid. He has offered to answer questions from Belizean law enforcement over the phone, and denies any involvement in Faull's death.

For three weeks, McAfee has been on the run, blogging about his flight, flinging accusations at the Belize government and demanding the release of several friends who have been arrested. He zipped around in speedboats and vans, dyed his hair and beard black and said he'd been sleeping in a bug-infested bed.

Over the weekend, a post on his blog claimed that he had been detained on the Belizean/Mexico border.

On Monday, a follow-up post said that the "John McAfee" taken into custody was actually a "double" who was carrying a North Korean passport with McAfee's name.

That post claimed that McAfee had already escaped Belize and was on the run with Samantha and two reporters from Vice Magazine.

McAfee did not reveal his location in that post, and a spokesperson for Belize's National Security Ministry, Raphael Martinez, told ABC News on Monday that no one by McAfee's name was ever detained at the border and that Belizean security officials believed McAfee was still in their country.

However, a photo posted by Vice Magazine on Monday with their article, "We Are With John McAfee Right Now, Suckers," apparently had been taken on an iPhone 4S and had location information embedded in it which revealed the exact coordinates where the photo was taken - in the Rio Dulce National Park in Guatemala – as reported by Wired.com.

A subsequent blog post on McAfee's site confirmed that the photo had mistakenly revealed his location, and said that Monday was "chaotic due to the accidental release of my exact co-ordinates by an unseasoned technician at Vice headquarters."

"We made it to safety in spite of this handicap," the post reads. "I had to cancel numerous interviews with the press yesterday because of this and I apologize to all of those affected."

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Clashes erupt in Egypt despite proposal to end crisis

CAIRO (Reuters) - Islamists fought protesters outside the Egyptian president's palace on Wednesday, while inside the building his deputy proposed a way to end a crisis over a draft constitution that has split the most populous Arab nation.

Stones and petrol bombs flew between opposition protesters and supporters of President Mohamed Mursi who had flocked to the palace in response to a call from the Muslim Brotherhood.

Two Islamists were hit in the legs by what their friends said were bullets fired during the clashes in streets around the compound in northern Cairo. One of them was bleeding heavily.

A leftist group said Islamists had cut off the ear of one of its members. Medical sources said 23 people had been wounded in clashes.

Riot police deployed between the two sides to try to stop the confrontations which flared after dark despite an attempt by Vice President Mahmoud Mekky to calm the political crisis.

He said amendments to disputed articles in the draft constitution could be agreed with the opposition. A written agreement could then be submitted to the next parliament, to be elected after a referendum on the constitution on December 15.

"There must be consensus," he told a news conference, saying opposition demands had to be respected to reach a solution.

Facing the gravest crisis of his six-month-old tenure, Mursi has shown no sign of buckling, confident that Islamists can win the referendum and a parliamentary election to follow.

Many Egyptians yearn for an end to political upheaval that has scared off investors and tourists, damaging the economy.

Egypt's opposition coalition blamed Mursi for the violence around his palace and said it was ready for dialogue if the Islamist leader scrapped a decree he issued on November 22 that gave him wide powers and shielded his decisions from judicial review.

"We hold President Mursi and his government completely responsible for the violence happening in Egypt today," opposition coordinator Mohamed ElBaradei told a news conference.

POLARISATION

"We are ready for dialogue if the constitutional decree is cancelled ... and the referendum on this constitution is postponed," he said of the document written by an Islamist-led assembly that the opposition says ignores its concerns.

"Today what is happening in the Egyptian street, polarisation and division, is something that could and is actually drawing us to violence and could draw us to something worse," the former head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog added.

Opposition leaders have previously urged Mursi to retract the November 22 decree, defer the referendum and agree to revise the constitution, but have not echoed calls from street protesters for his overthrow and the "downfall of the regime".

Mursi has said his decree was needed to prevent courts still full of judges appointed by ousted strongman Hosni Mubarak from derailing a constitution vital for Egypt's political transition.

Rival groups skirmished outside the presidential palace earlier on Wednesday. Islamist supporters of Mursi tore down tents erected by leftist foes, who had begun a sit-in there.

"They hit us and destroyed our tents. Are you happy, Mursi? Aren't we Egyptians too?" asked protester Haitham Ahmed.

Mohamed Mohy, a pro-Mursi demonstrator who was filming the scene, said: "We are here to support our president and his decisions and save our country from traitors and agents."

Mekky said street mobilization by both sides posed a "real danger" to Egypt. "If we do not put a stop to this phenomenon right away ... where are we headed? We must calm down."

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton weighed into Egypt's political debate, saying dialogue was urgently needed on the new constitution, which should "respect the rights of all citizens".

DIALOGUE

Clinton and Mursi worked together last month to broker a truce between Israel and Hamas Islamists in the Gaza Strip.

"It needs to be a two-way dialogue ... among Egyptians themselves about the constitutional process and the substance of the constitution," Clinton told a news conference in Brussels.

Washington is worried about rising Islamist power in Egypt, a staunch U.S. security partner under Mubarak, who preserved the U.S.-brokered peace treaty Cairo signed with Israel in 1979.

The Muslim Brotherhood had summoned supporters to an open-ended demonstration at the presidential palace, a day after about 10,000 opposition protesters had encircled it for what organizers dubbed a "last warning" to Mursi.

"The people want the downfall of the regime," they chanted, roaring the signature slogan of last year's anti-Mubarak revolt.

The "last warning" may turn out to be one of the last gasps for a disparate opposition that has little chance of scuttling next week's vote on the draft constitution.

State institutions, with the partial exception of the judiciary, have mostly fallen in behind Mursi.

The army, the muscle behind all previous Egyptian presidents in the republic's six-decade history, has gone back to barracks, having apparently lost its appetite to intervene in politics.

In a bold move, Mursi sacked Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the Mubarak-era army commander and defense minister, in August and removed the sweeping powers that the military council, which took over after Mubarak fell, had grabbed two months earlier.

The liberals, leftists, Christians, ex-Mubarak followers and others opposed to Mursi have yet to generate a mass movement or a grassroots political base to challenge the Brotherhood.

Investors have seized on hopes that Egypt's turbulent transition, which has buffeted the economy for two years, may soon head for calmer waters, sending stocks 1.6 percent higher after a 3.5 percent rally on Tuesday.

Egypt has turned to the IMF for a $4.8 billion loan after the depletion of its foreign currency reserves. The government said on Wednesday the process was on track and its request would go to the IMF board as expected.

The board is due to review the facility on December 19.

Elijah Zarwan, a fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that if Egypt was to find a compromise solution to its crisis, it would not be through slogans and blows.

"It will be through quiet negotiation, not through duelling press conferences, street brawls, or civil strife."

(Additional reporting by Tom Perry, Tamim Elyan and Edmund Blair; Writing by Alistair Lyon; Editing by Andrew Roche)

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Dublin unveils sixth austerity budget

DUBLIN: Bailed-out eurozone member Ireland on Wednesday launched its sixth austerity budget aimed at raising 3.5 billion euros via painful taxation hikes and public spending cuts.

Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan, unveiling his latest budget before parliament, said however that there were clear signs that the worst of the nation's financial crisis was over.

"There are manifest signs that the country is emerging from the worst of the crisis," Noonan told lawmakers.

He added: "The economy grew last year, will grow this year, and will grow again next year. The effort of the Irish people, despite the hardship, was leading to success."

Noonan revealed that the big-spending departments of health and social welfare would bear the brunt of the cuts.

Other austerity measures included higher levies on alcohol and cigarettes, and hikes for motor tax and capital gains tax.

In addition, he confirmed the introduction of a politically sensitive property levy, with an added "mansion tax" for houses valued over one million euros ($1.3 million).

And the minister also announced a 10-point tax reform plan to encourage small and medium-sized enterprises, a key driver of employment in Ireland.

However, Noonan repeated his pledge to keep corporation tax -- which is levied on company profits -- at a eurozone low of 12.5 percent, despite international pressure to raise it.

Debt-plagued Ireland was bailed out with an 85-billion-euro EU-IMF rescue package in November 2010 after it was devastated by the global financial crisis and a domestic property market meltdown.

As part of the rescue deal, Ireland agreed to painful austerity measures including spending cutbacks, state asset sales and tax hikes.

This week's budget is the latest aimed at bringing the deficit down to less than the EU ceiling of 3.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2015.

Dublin aims to reduce the deficit to 7.5 percent of GDP in 2013. This year, Noonan said it would come in at 8.2 percent, well within the 8.6-percent target set by the bailout programme.

Ireland has won praise as a "poster boy" of the eurozone crisis on how best to enact convincing reforms to make a return to the markets.

However, official figures released by the Central Statistics Office on Wednesday revealed that Ireland's unemployment rate remains stubbornly high at 14.6 percent in November -- but had eased from 14.7 percent in October.

"The Irish financial crisis could be summarised in one word: debt, national debt and personal debt," Noonan said on Wednesday.

"The government is committed with dealing with both national and personal debt. Continuing to borrow large amounts to fund our day-to-day services is simply not sustainable."

He added: "The reality is that stable public finances are an essential prerequisite to long-term economic growth and job creation.

"We will only be able to successfully access the markets in the long-term if the markets believe we've a credible fiscal strategy and agree that our debt is sustainable."

On the eve of the budget, the Department of Finance announced weaker tax revenue growth in the second half of the year continued in November, with tax revenues now 171 million euro behind target for the first 11 months in 2012.

-AFP/ac

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GMR row: Diplomatic failure for India

NEW DELHI: The Maldives government and GMR are headed on a collision course, but India is the ultimate loser, exhibiting a stunning diplomatic failure and political naivete of a country crucial to India's security considerations.

Maldives has given GMR until Saturday December 8 to get out of the Male airport. GMR's CEO Andrew Harrison, in a statement said, "The injunction clearly prevents them from taking the action outlined in their notice issued to us stating that the airport would be taken over at the end of the 7 day period. We remain resolute in our position and there is no question of an offer being made and certainly no question of any alleged offer being accepted as we will simply not agree to our rights nor the injunction being undermined in any way."

This can only have an ugly ending. While there has been no communication with Maldives president, Waheed, the foreign minister told Salman Khurshid that they were determined to evict GMR. India can either look the other way, or adopt strong-arm tactics neither of which has any good implications.

When India fell over itself to recognize Waheed as president, who had overthrown Nasheed in February, he was an unknown quantity. But Indian government were happy to dump Nasheed for Waheed, including indicating that Nasheed was acting against Indian interests. The GMR deal was one of the big reasons behind the February events anyway, so it should have been incumbent on the Indian government to ensure that the problems were ironed out.

Ousted Mohamed Nasheed, wrote this week, "India should have foreseen the consequences its investments would later face in endorsing a regime consisting of elements that had previously shown its disapproval towards major Indian investments. India should have taken its time to assess the political situation of the country and should have confirmed the legitimacy of the controversial regime before accepting it. However, failure to do so resulted in the scrapping of its single largest investment by the very government it had recognised."

Maldives has lurched from protest to protest, even though India by and large protected the Waheed government from certain censure by the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG). But India failed to secure its own interests in return, because India wasn't actually engaged with the implications of what was clearly happening in Maldives.

Foreign minister Salman Khurshid, said India was keeping Maldives "at arms length" since the departure of Nasheed. India is now paying the price for that decision. Waheed's special advisor, Hassan Saeed wrote a letter to Manmohan Singh in September, asking India to assist in the termination. In his letter, he said, "The Indian Foreign Secretary's visit to our country in February failed to resolve the political crisis largely because India is no longer seen as a friendly and fair neighbour who could broker an honest and fair deal."

This was not just about GMR. Maldives complained that the government was being forced to pay GMR, that Maldivians were being charged for the airport fee. Indian officials said GMR was ready to make a deal with the Maldives government, which should have been facilitated. This vaccum gave Islamists like the Adhaalath party room to push Waheed on this issue.

Indian officials complained "outside" interests have muddied the waters __ which is not surprising. The Adhaalath party, said sources, has strong links with Pakistan, which is only now being acknowledged in India.

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CDC says US flu season starts early, could be bad

NEW YORK (AP) — Flu season in the U.S. is off to its earliest start in nearly a decade — and it could be a bad one.

Health officials on Monday said suspected flu cases have jumped in five Southern states, and the primary strain circulating tends to make people sicker than other types. It is particularly hard on the elderly.

"It looks like it's shaping up to be a bad flu season, but only time will tell," said Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The good news is that the nation seems fairly well prepared, Frieden said. More than a third of Americans have been vaccinated, and the vaccine formulated for this year is well-matched to the strains of the virus seen so far, CDC officials said.

Higher-than-normal reports of flu have come in from Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas. An uptick like this usually doesn't happen until after Christmas. Flu-related hospitalizations are also rising earlier than usual, and there have already been two deaths in children.

Hospitals and urgent care centers in northern Alabama have been bustling. "Fortunately, the cases have been relatively mild," said Dr. Henry Wang, an emergency medicine physician at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Parts of Georgia have seen a boom in traffic, too. It's not clear why the flu is showing up so early, or how long it will stay.

"My advice is: Get the vaccine now," said Dr. James Steinberg, an Emory University infectious diseases specialist in Atlanta.

The last time a conventional flu season started this early was the winter of 2003-04, which proved to be one of the most lethal seasons in the past 35 years, with more than 48,000 deaths. The dominant type of flu back then was the same one seen this year.

One key difference between then and now: In 2003-04, the vaccine was poorly matched to the predominant flu strain. Also, there's more vaccine now, and vaccination rates have risen for the general public and for key groups such as pregnant women and health care workers.

An estimated 112 million Americans have been vaccinated so far, the CDC said. Flu vaccinations are recommended for everyone 6 months or older.

On average, about 24,000 Americans die each flu season, according to the CDC.

Flu usually peaks in midwinter. Symptoms can include fever, cough, runny nose, head and body aches and fatigue. Some people also suffer vomiting and diarrhea, and some develop pneumonia or other severe complications.

A strain of swine flu that hit in 2009 caused a wave of cases in the spring and then again in the early fall. But that was considered a unique type of flu, distinct from the conventional strains that circulate every year.

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Online:

CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly

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Alaska Serial Killer Buried Murder Kits Across US

Israel Keyes, the Alaskan man whoconfessed to seven murders before killing himself in a jail cell, told police that he traveled the country to find victims and buried caches of weapons, money and tools for disposing of bodies to use in future crimes.

The FBI also released an ominous list of 35 trips Keyes made around the U.S., Mexico and Canada over the last eight years.

Keyes, 34, the owner of an Anchorage construction company, was in jail charged with the February murder of Samantha Koenig, 18. While in jail he had been confessing to at least seven other killings in Washington, New York and Vermont. He was found dead in his Alaska jail cell on Sunday in an apparent suicide.

Investigators are now piecing together a deadly puzzle that is uncovering a macabre lifestyle of Keyes traveling to kill simply because he "liked to do it," prosecutors said.

"In a series of interviews with law enforcement, Keyes described significant planning and preparation for his murders, reflecting a meticulous and organized approach to the crimes," the Anchorage FBI office said in a statement.

The FBI has released a timeline of Keyes' travels that showed nearly three dozen trips between 2004 and 2012. The destinations of the trips are vague, described only by U.S. region in most cases, but span the entire country, including Hawaii. There are also trips to Canada and Mexico listed.

"Keyes also admitted traveling to various locations to leave supplies he planned to use in a future crime. Keyes buried caches throughout the United States," the FBI said.

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Authorities have already recovered two caches, one in Alaska and one in New York, that contained money, weapons and items for disposing of bodies. Keyes indicated that there were other supply boxes buried across the country.

He funded his travel with the proceeds from bank robberies, authorities said.

"Investigators believe that Keyes did not know any of his victims prior to their abductions," the FBI said. "He described several remote locations that he frequented to look for victims--parks, campgrounds, trailheads, cemeteries, boating areas, etc."

Keyes told authorities that his victims received little if any media attention when they disappeared. Authorities said that "based on his own research," Keyes said that one of his victims had been recovered, but the death was ruled accidental. Investigators said they have not identified the victim or location of that alleged crime.

Before his death, Keyes indicated that, in addition to Koenig and a Vermont couple, he killed four people in Washington State and one person in New York, but did not give the victims' names, authorities said.

"It was not unusual for Keyes to fly into an airport, rent a car, and drive hundreds of miles to his final destination," the FBI said.

That is precisely what Keyes did in the murder of Bill and Lorraine Currier in Essex, Vt., last year. He flew from Alaska to Chicago in June 2011. He rented a car in Chicago and drove to Vermont where he spent three days looking for his next victims and planning the slaying.

"When [Keyes] left Alaska, he left with the specific purpose of kidnapping and murdering someone," Chittenden County State Attorney T. J. Donovan said at the press conference. "He was specifically looking for a house that had an attached garage, no car in the driveway, no children, no dog."

The Curriers, unfortunately, fit all of Keyes' criteria. He spent three days in Vermont before striking. He even took out a three-day fishing license and fished before the slayings.

Keyes abducted the couple from their home and murdered them in an abandoned barn he had located before breaking into the Curriers' home. After binding the couple with plastic cuffs, the beat the husband with a shovel and then shot him. The wife was raped and strangled.

"By all accounts, [the Curriers] were friendly, peaceful, good people who encountered a force of pure evil acting at random," an investigator said at today's news conference. Authorities called the ongoing investigation a "huge case, national in scope."

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NATO warns Syria not to use chemical weapons

BRUSSELS/BEIRUT (Reuters) - NATO told Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Tuesday that any use of chemical weapons in his fight against encroaching rebel forces would be met by an immediate international response.

The warning from NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen came as U.S. government sources said Washington had information that Syria was making what could be seen as preparations to use its chemical arsenal.

Syrian forces meanwhile bombarded rebel districts near Damascus in a sustained counter-attack to stem rebel gains around Assad's power base as the insurgency may be entering a decisive phase.

International concern over Syria's intentions has been heightened by reports that its chemical weapons have been moved and could be prepared for use.

"The possible use of chemical weapons would be completely unacceptable for the whole international community and if anybody resorts to these terrible weapons I would expect an immediate reaction from the international community," Rasmussen told reporters at the start of a meeting of alliance foreign ministers in Brussels.

The chemical threat made it urgent for the alliance to send Patriot anti-missile missiles to Turkey, Rasmussen said.

The French Foreign Ministry referred to "possible movements on military bases storing chemical weapons in Syria" and said the international community would react if they were used.

Britain has told the Syrian government that any use of chemical weapons would have "serious consequences", Foreign Secretary William Hague said.

U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday told Assad not to use chemical weapons, without saying how the United States might respond. The Foreign Ministry in Damascus said it would never use such weapons against Syrians.

CLASSIFIED INTELLIGENCE

The U.S. has collected what has been described as highly classified intelligence information demonstrating that Syria is making what could be construed as preparations to use elements of its extensive chemical weapons arsenal, two U.S. government sources briefed on the issue said.

One of the sources said that there was no question that the US "Intelligence community" had received information pointing to "preparations" under way in Syria related to chemical weapons. The source declined to specify what kind of preparations had been reported, or how close the intelligence indicated the Syrians were to deploying or even using the weapons.

Western military experts say Syria has four suspected chemical weapons sites, and it can produce chemical weapons agents including mustard gas and sarin, and possibly also VX nerve agent. The CIA has estimated that Syria possesses several hundred liters of chemical weapons and produces hundreds of tonnes of agents annually.

The fighting around Damascus has led foreign airlines to suspend flights and prompted the United Nations and European Union to reduce their presence in the capital, adding to a sense that the fight is closing in.

The army fightback came a day after the Syrian foreign ministry spokesman was reported to have defected in a potentially embarrassing blow to the government.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 200 people were killed across Syria on Monday, more than 60 of them around Damascus. Assad's forces bombarded districts to the south-east of the capital on Tuesday, near to the international airport, and in the rebel bastion of Daraya to the south-west.

Opposition footage posted on the Internet showed a multiple rocket launcher fire 20 rockets, which activists said was filmed at the Mezze military airport in Damascus.

Reuters could not independently verify the footage due to the government's severe reporting restrictions.

In central Damascus, shielded for many months from the full force of a civil war in which 40,000 people have been killed, one resident reported hearing several loud explosions.

"I have heard four or five thunderous blows. It could be barrel bombs," she said, referring to makeshift bombs which activists say Assad's forces have dropped from helicopters on rebel-dominated areas.

MORTAR ATTACK

The state news agency said that 28 students and a teacher were killed near the capital when rebels fired a mortar bomb on a school. Rebels have targeted government-held residential districts of the capital.

The mainly Sunni Muslim rebel forces have made advances in recent weeks, seizing military bases, including some close to Damascus, from forces loyal to Assad, who is from Syria's Alawite minority linked to Shi'ite Islam.

Faced with creeping rebel gains across the north and east of the country, and the growing challenge around the capital, Assad has increasingly resorted to air strikes against the insurgents.

A diplomat in the Middle East said Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi had left the country and defected, while the British-based Observatory said it had information that he flew from Beirut on Monday afternoon heading for London.

In Beirut, a diplomat said Lebanese officials had confirmed that Makdissi spent several days in Beirut before leaving on Monday, but could not confirm his destination.

"We're aware of reports that he has defected and may be coming to the UK. We're seeking clarification," a Foreign Office spokeswoman in London said.

Makdissi was the public face to the outside world of Assad's government as it battled the 20-month-old uprising. But he had barely appeared in public for several weeks before Monday's report of his defection.

He had little influence in a system largely run by the security apparatus and the military. But Assad's opponents will see the loss of such a high profile figure, if confirmed, as further evidence of a system crumbling from within.

The United Nations and European Union both said they were reducing their presence in Syria in response to the escalated violence around the capital.

A spokesman for U.N. humanitarian operations said the move would not stop aid deliveries to areas which remained accessible to relief convoys.

"U.N.-funded aid supplies delivered through SARC (Syrian Arab Red Crescent) and other charities are still moving daily where the roads are open," Jens Laerke told Reuters in Geneva.

"We have not suspended our operation, we are reducing the non-essential international staff."

Three remaining international staff at the European Union delegation, who stayed on in Damascus after the departure of most Western envoys, crossed the border into Lebanon on Tuesday after pulling out of the Syrian capital.

(Additional reporting by David Brunnstrom in Brussels, Khaled Yacoub Oweis in Cairo, Erika Solomon, Oliver Holmes and Ayat Basma in Beirut, Mark Hosenball, Mohammed Abbas and David Cutler in London, and Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva; Editing by Giles Elgood)

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Fugitive McAfee seeks asylum in Guatemala

GUATEMALA CITY: American Internet pioneer John McAfee, wanted for questioning over the murder of his neighbor last month in Belize, is seeking political asylum in Guatemala, his lawyer said Tuesday.

McAfee, 67, amassed huge wealth as a Silicon Valley entrepreneur in the 1990s, designing the hugely popular anti-virus software that bears his name and remains a leading industry product to this day.

In a plotline worthy of a Hollywood thriller, the multi-millionaire went on the run from his home on the idyllic Belize paradise island of Ambergris Caye hours after neighbour Gregory Faull was murdered on November 11.

With his 20-year-old girlfriend Sam Vanegas in tow, he managed to cross the border into Guatemala over the weekend and has secured the services of star lawyer Telesforo Guerra, a former Guatemalan attorney general.

"I have to manage his political asylum," Guerra told AFP after meeting McAfee early Tuesday at a hotel in Guatemala City.

McAfee "is persecuted in Belize, persecuted politically because he stopped financing the government. They accuse him of a common crime. So what I have to obtain is an authorization of asylum," the lawyer said.

Asked whether McAfee fears being assassinated, Guerra said: "Yes, he fears for his life, because after having helped and supported the current government in Belize, they now want more and more money, which they pocket and don't invest."

McAfee, who maintains his innocence, has left a confusing and often contradictory trail of information about his life on the run on his blog, whoismcafee.com.

"It was not easy to exit Belize and required many supporters in many countries," he wrote on Tuesday.

"I am in Guatemala and will be meeting with Guatemalan officials this morning. If all goes well I will do a press conference tomorrow (Wednesday)," he added.

Before fleeing south into Guatemala, he put out a false report saying he had been captured near the northern Mexican border and claimed to have sent a "double" with a North Korean passport to Mexico as another decoy.

Internet users tracked a photo from a magazine on Monday to Guatemala, but McAfee initially claimed to have encrypted it to throw police off the scent.

"I apologize for all of the misdirections over the past few days," McAfee, who is travelling with two reporters from Vice magazine, wrote on Tuesday.

"Yesterday was chaotic due to the accidental release of my exact co-ordinates by an unseasoned technician at Vice headquarters," he said.

"We made it to safety in spite of this handicap. I had to cancel numerous interviews with the press yesterday because of this and I apologize to all of those affected."

Vice magazine put out an article Tuesday with a photo showing Guerra and McAfee having breakfast and claiming that Sam, McAfee's partner on the lam, was actually the lawyer's niece.

"I have known Samantha for a year and a half. She is a remarkable young woman. I love her very much and we are getting married," McAfee is quoted as telling Guerra.

"Unfortunately you will have a potential criminal in the family. My apologies for that, and I will do the best I can to make it up to you," he added, reportedly prompting an amused response from Guerra.

Police say Faull, a 52-year-old Florida expatriate, was discovered by his housekeeper with a 9-mm slug in his head lying in a pool of his own blood.

Belize Prime Minister Dean Barrow has described McAfee as "bonkers," saying he is only wanted for questioning as a "person of interest" in the case and urging him to give himself up.

Prior to his murder, Faull had led neighbours in writing a letter to the mayor complaining that McAfee's "vicious" dogs and aggressive security guards were scaring tourists and residents alike.

McAfee shot dead four of his dogs before fleeing, claiming they had been poisoned, possibly by Faull.

Police said the dogs were exhumed last week and ballistics experts are seeing if the slugs match up with the one found in Faull's head.

McAfee decamped to Belize in 2009 after losing an estimated $96 million of his $100 million fortune due to bad investments and the financial crisis.

According to profiles in The New York Times and tech magazine Wired, his lifestyle became increasingly extreme as he descended into a drug-fuelled existence centred on young prostitutes.

McAfee was briefly incarcerated in April after police found him living with a 17-year-old girl and discovered an arsenal of seven pump-action shotguns, one single-action shotgun, and two 9-mm pistols.

- AFP/fa

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